Ed 
Yes, Austin home prices are dropping. The median Travis County home sold for $495,000 in August 2026, down 5.7% from a year earlier and 22.7% below the $640,000 peak in May 2022, according to the Unlock MLS sales data we track at Neuhaus Realty Group. But here’s the part nobody’s talking about, the drop isn’t landing on every seller the same way (and it’s not about which side of I-35 you live on either).
It’s about when you bought. We pulled every active home for sale in Travis, Williamson, Hays, Bastrop and Caldwell counties on October 2, 2026 and matched each one to the last time that same house sold. Of the sellers who bought in 2021, 2022 or 2023, 63.4% are listed below what they paid. For sellers who bought before 2021 it’s 2.4%. Same market, same month, completely different game right.
The obvious question is which part of town is cutting prices the fastest. Honestly I don’t think it’s an area of town that’s getting price cuts faster. I think it’s the seller. The folks who bought in 2021 through 2023, when the market was at the high, can’t cut as much. So the sellers who can enter the market at a lower price point are the ones winning right now, and if you’re forced to list your house at an elevated price, it’s just harder to sell.
Are Austin home prices dropping for everyone, or just some sellers?
The county numbers are what most people see. Here’s what the August 2026 medians look like next to the 2022 peak, straight from our market data warehouse.
| County | 2022 peak median | August 2025 | August 2026 | Change vs year ago | Change vs peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis | $640,000 (May 2022) | $524,990 | $495,000 | -5.7% | -22.7% |
| Williamson | $515,000 (Apr 2022) | $425,000 | $399,900 | -5.9% | -22.3% |
| Hays | $488,000 (Apr 2022) | $362,500 | $355,025 | -2.1% | -27.2% |
Median sold price, all Residential (houses, condos, townhomes). Source: Neuhaus Realty Group analysis of Unlock MLS closed sales via the Neuhaus VOW database. September 2026 isn’t complete yet, so August is the latest full month.
So are Austin home prices dropping? Yes. But a median is one number sitting on top of a lot of different people’s situations. If you bought in 2018, a 22% drop from the peak still leaves you way ahead. If you bought in the spring of 2022, that same drop is your equity.
The table: active Austin listings by the year the seller bought
This is the one I’d tape to the fridge if I was thinking about selling. Every active Residential sale listing in the five-county Austin metro, matched to the home’s previous closed sale.
| Year the seller bought | Active listings | % with a price cut | Median cut (when cut) | Median list price vs what they paid | % listed below what they paid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2021 | 2,816 | 59.1% | 5.9% ($26,000) | +62.9% | 2.4% |
| 2021-2023 | 1,636 | 57.5% | 5.5% ($29,000) | -5.3% | 63.4% |
| 2024 or later | 626 | 55.4% | 4.9% ($25,000) | +3.7% | 35.9% |
Active Residential sale listings (leases excluded) in Travis, Williamson, Hays, Bastrop and Caldwell counties as of October 2, 2026, matched by parcel to the most recent prior closed sale. 5,078 of 13,861 active listings had a prior MLS sale to match. “Price cut” means current list price is below the original list price. Source: Neuhaus Realty Group analysis of Unlock MLS data via the Neuhaus VOW database.
Look at the middle row. The 2021-2023 group cuts about as often as everybody else (57.5% vs 59.1%), and the cut itself is about the same size. So it’s not that these sellers are stubborn. It’s that they started the race already behind. The median one is asking 5.3% less than they paid before any cut at all, and every dollar they knock off after that comes straight out of their own pocket.
And 2022 is the worst of it. Sellers who bought in 2022 are listed a median 12.3% below what they paid, and 75.0% of them are below their purchase price. Compare that to someone who bought in 2019, sitting at a median of +37.8%. That person can price under market tomorrow and still walk away happy.
And here’s the thing, the pattern doesn’t really care about the county. In Williamson County, 70.4% of active sellers who bought in 2021-2023 are listed below what they paid. Travis is 61.4%. Hays is 58.6%. The before-2021 group in those same counties is between 0.2% and 3.6%. That’s why I keep saying this is about the seller, not the part of town.
Who wins: what happened to Austin price cuts in 2026
Active listings tell you who’s stuck right now. So we also looked at every listing in the same five counties that ended between April 1 and September 30, 2026, either because it sold or because it expired or got pulled.
| Year the seller bought | Listings that ended | Sold | Expired or withdrawn | Median days on market (sold) | % of sellers who sold below what they paid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2021 | 6,375 | 4,442 | 30.3% | 26 | 1.5% |
| 2021-2023 | 3,086 | 1,582 | 48.7% | 37 | 70.7% |
| 2024 or later | 1,070 | 647 | 39.5% | 29.5 | 42.8% |
Residential sale listings that closed, expired or were withdrawn April 1 to September 30, 2026, matched by parcel to the prior closed sale. Source: Neuhaus Realty Group analysis of Unlock MLS data via the Neuhaus VOW database.
Almost half of the 2021-2023 sellers didn’t sell. 48.7%. The before-2021 group failed 30.3% of the time and sold in a median 26 days. And the 2021-2023 sellers who did get it done? 70.7% of them sold for less than they paid.
So who wins. The seller with room. The person who bought in 2015 or 2019 can list at or under market, get a crowd on day one, and let the buyers do the work. That’s not that hard right. The 2024 or later group is a mixed bag, by the way, because it includes flippers (people who bought in 2026 and relisted are asking a median 54.1% over what they paid, so somebody’s been busy with a paint roller).
Kahneman’s whole thing is that a loss hurts about twice as much as the same size gain feels good. I think that’s the 2021-2023 seller in one sentence. Selling for $40,000 less than you paid doesn’t feel like a pricing decision, it feels like getting robbed. But the buyer walking through your house has no idea what you paid (Texas doesn’t put sale prices in public records, so they really don’t), and they wouldn’t care if they did.
Selling a house in Austin in 2026: you have 14 days
The biggest mistake sellers are making right now is listing too high and not cutting fast enough. You have 14 days to sell your property. If you’re too high, no one’s going to come look at it. Zero. Zero people will come look at it if it’s listed above market.
The numbers back that up pretty hard. Here’s every Residential home that closed in the five counties from April through September 2026, split by how long it sat.
| Days on market | Homes sold | Median sale price vs original list price |
|---|---|---|
| 0 to 14 days | 4,496 | 100.0% |
| 15 to 60 days | 5,883 | 95.7% |
| 61+ days | 6,020 | 90.3% |
Closed Residential sales, Travis, Williamson, Hays, Bastrop and Caldwell counties, April 1 to September 30, 2026. Source: Neuhaus Realty Group analysis of Unlock MLS data via the Neuhaus VOW database.
Homes that sold in the first two weeks got a median 100% of their original asking price. Homes that sat past 60 days got 90.3%. Now, to be fair, some of that is just that well-priced homes sell fast (chicken and egg, I know). But on a $500,000 house, that gap is almost $50,000, and you’re paying taxes, insurance and a mortgage the whole time you wait for it.
If you want the deeper version of this, we ran the full counterfactual in The Cost of Overpricing Your Austin Home. Short version, the people who held out mostly lost.
How to price a house in Austin when you bought at the top
You should be pricing under market to get people in the door. I know, that’s a terrible thing to hear when you’re already listed below what you paid. But the market doesn’t know your number and it isn’t going to pay your number because you need it.
Here’s how I’d think about it, depending on which row of the table you’re in:
- Bought before 2021. You’re the winner here, so act like it. Price at or a little under the comps, get the traffic in week one, and let competition set the final number. You have the cushion to do this and most of your competition doesn’t.
- Bought 2021-2023 and you have to sell. Price for the market you’re in, not the one you bought in. A smaller loss in 14 days usually beats a bigger loss after 90 days of carrying costs and two price drops (well, unless you enjoy mowing a lawn for a house you don’t live in anymore).
- Bought 2021-2023 and you don’t have to sell. Then really think about whether now is your moment. That is a whole different post, and honestly a whole different conversation, so call me.
- Bought 2024 or later. You’re close to even in most cases. Closing costs are what bite you here, so run the net sheet before you pick a list price.
And if you don’t know exactly what your house is worth today (your appraisal district value from Travis Central Appraisal District is a tax number, not a price), start there. Our complete guide to pricing your home in Austin walks through how comps actually work.
If you’re a buyer reading this, the 2021-2023 listings that have been sitting are the ones to look at closely. Those sellers are boxed in, so be respectful, but they’re also the ones most likely to need a deal done. You can browse Austin homes for sale and check the price history on any listing.
What I’m watching next
I’ve been selling homes here since 2009, and I’m a broker, not a statistician (which is exactly why every number in this post came out of a database and not out of my head). Ok, but the point is these numbers aren’t complicated. The seller with equity can price aggressively. The seller without it has to decide how much loss they can live with, and the longer they wait to decide, the bigger it usually gets.
At Neuhaus Realty Group we’ll keep re-running this table as the market moves. If 2021-2023 sellers start pulling their listings in big numbers, inventory gets tighter and the math changes again. No big deal right, we’ll update you.
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If you bought in 2021, 2022 or 2023 and you’re trying to figure out whether you can sell without bringing a check to closing, that’s exactly the conversation I want to have. I’ll pull your home’s comps, tell you where you’d actually land, and be honest if the answer is “not yet.” Reach out to Ed Neuhaus and lets grab coffee. Be safe, be good, and be nice to people.
