Ed Neuhaus 
The Bee Cave real estate market is telling two different stories right now. On the surface, median prices are up nearly 7% year over year. But dig into the data and you will see something else happening. Price per square foot is down 7%, inventory is up 24%, and over half of all listings in the broader Austin market have already taken at least one price cut. So what does this actually mean if you are buying or selling in Bee Cave right now.
I have been working this market since 2009, and I have seen this pattern before. Lets break down what is really happening in Bee Cave, neighborhood by neighborhood, and where I think we are headed in 2026.
The Headline Numbers: What Sold in January 2026
Here is what the data shows for Bee Cave over the last 30 days:
- Median sale price: $1.0M to $1.095M (up 6.9% to 38.6% YoY depending on the source)
- Price per square foot: $293 to $322 (down 7% YoY)
- Days on market: 30.5 days (down from 32 days last year)
- Active listings: 56 homes (up 24.4% YoY)
- Homes sold: 10 homes (down from 11 last year)
- Sale-to-list ratio: Homes selling for 5% below list price on average
- Homes selling above list: 0% (down 9.1 points YoY)
Ok, yes the median is up. But that does not mean home values went up 7% across the board. What it actually means is that the homes selling right now are bigger and more expensive. The mix shifted.
When price per square foot drops 7% but the median sale price climbs 7%, you are not seeing appreciation. You are seeing larger homes dominate the sales data while smaller homes sit. This sounds like a no brainer right? The luxury segment is holding while the entry level softens. That is exactly what is happening in Bee Cave.
What the Numbers Actually Mean: The Tale of Two Markets
Bee Cave has always been a mix of different price points. You have got newer luxury builds in Spanish Oaks, affordable family homes in Falconhead, and everything in between. Right now those segments are performing very differently.
The luxury segment ($1.5M+): Still moving. Buyers in this price range are less payment sensitive. They care about location, lot size, school district, and lifestyle. If the home checks those boxes, they are buying. Spanish Oaks and the Hill Country custom builds are holding value better than anything else in the market.
The middle market ($700K to $1.5M): This is where things get interesting. Inventory is up, days on market are climbing, and sellers are cutting prices. Buyers in this range are payment sensitive, and with mortgage rates still in the low 6% range, a $1M home at 6.11% costs about $6,100 per month before taxes and insurance. That is real money, and buyers are being picky. If your home is not updated, priced right, and in a top neighborhood, it is sitting.
The entry level (under $700K): There is almost nothing here anymore. You might find a condo or a small older home, but inventory is tight and what does come up moves fast if it is priced right. First time buyers are being squeezed out of Bee Cave entirely, which is pushing them toward Dripping Springs or farther west.
Why Inventory Is Up 24%
This one is simple. Sellers listed homes in late 2025 expecting the market to hold. It did not. So now you have got 56 active listings in Bee Cave, which is the highest inventory we have seen in a while. That gives buyers options, and when buyers have options, they negotiate harder.
At 56 active listings and 10 sales per month, that is about 5.6 months of supply. Anything over 6 months is a buyer’s market. We are not quite there yet, but we are close. Six months ago we were at 3 months of supply. That is a big shift.
And here is the thing: over half of all active listings in the broader Austin area have already taken at least one price reduction. Sellers are chasing the market down, and that never works. If you overprice your home in this market, you will sit for 60+ days, take two or three price cuts, and end up selling for less than if you had priced it right from the start. I have seen this play out dozens of times.
New Construction Is Changing the Game
Bee Cave is in the middle of a massive building boom, and that is putting downward pressure on resale values.
Provence expansion: The Provence development is growing from 650 homes to 1,600 homes across 910 acres. Early sections of Phase 2 are hitting the market now, with the full buildout running through 2028 to 2030. That is a lot of new inventory, and it is all move-in ready with builder incentives, warranty coverage, and modern floor plans.
The Village at Spanish Oaks: This 80-acre mixed-use development is adding retail, restaurants, office space, and residential housing to the Spanish Oaks area. It is a long-term project, but it is going to transform the west side of Bee Cave.
Active builders: Ashton Woods, M/I Homes, and Taylor Morrison are all building actively in Bee Cave right now. That means buyers have a choice: buy a resale home that needs updates, or buy new construction with a warranty and modern energy efficiency.
Here is what that means for resale values. If you are selling a 10 year old home in Bee Cave and a buyer can get a brand new home in Provence for the same price, you are going to lose. Your home needs to be updated, well maintained, and priced below new construction to compete. Otherwise you will sit.
Neighborhood by Neighborhood: What Is Hot and What Is Not
Not all Bee Cave neighborhoods are performing the same. Here is what I am seeing right now:
Spanish Oaks: Still the top of the market. Custom builds on large lots with Hill Country views. This is where the $2M+ buyers are going, and it is holding value better than anywhere else in Bee Cave. If you are selling here, you are fine. Just do not overprice.
Falconhead: This is the most price sensitive neighborhood in Bee Cave. Homes here are typically $600K to $900K, and buyers in this range are getting squeezed by rates. Inventory is higher than it was six months ago, and homes are sitting longer. If you are selling in Falconhead, you need to be aggressive on price and condition. Buyers have options, and they are using them.
Sweetwater: Holding steady. This is a mature neighborhood with good schools and proximity to amenities. Homes here are moving if they are priced right and show well. Nothing spectacular, but not a disaster either.
The Homestead: Smaller lot sizes, lower HOA fees, and more affordable price points. This neighborhood is seeing buyer interest from people who want Bee Cave schools without the Bee Cave price tag. Still competitive, but slower than it was a year ago.
Provence: The new construction king. If you are buying new, this is where you are looking. Builder incentives are aggressive right now, which is great for buyers but tough for resale sellers nearby. If you own a home near Provence, your competition is not other resale homes. It is the builder down the street offering 2% toward closing costs and a rate buydown.
What Is Driving Demand: Who Is Moving to Bee Cave
Bee Cave has always attracted move-up buyers, tech workers, and California transplants. That has not changed. What has changed is the pace.
California migration: Still strong. Travis County is the top destination for people leaving Los Angeles, with about 3,650 LA County residents moving here in a single year. These buyers are coming from a market where $1M gets you a tear down in a mediocre neighborhood. In Bee Cave, $1M gets you a 3,000 square foot home with a yard and good schools. That value proposition still works, which is why we are still seeing California money flow in.
Tech workers: Austin’s tech scene is still growing, and companies like Tesla and Oracle are expanding. Tech workers want proximity to downtown but also space and good schools. Bee Cave checks those boxes, especially for families with kids.
Local move-up buyers: These are Austin residents who are trading up from a smaller home in Zilker or South Austin to a bigger home in Bee Cave. They want the Lake Travis schools, the Hill Country lifestyle, and more square footage. But they are also the most rate sensitive buyers in the market.
The first thing to know about migration patterns is that they are slowing but not stopping. In 2021 and 2022, people were moving to Austin in droves. In 2026, it is more measured. Buyers are taking their time, doing their homework, and negotiating harder. But they are still coming.
Interest Rates: The Biggest Swing Factor
Lets talk about what mortgage rates are actually doing to the market.
Right now, 30 year fixed rates in Texas are sitting around 6.11%. That is down from 6.93% a year ago, which is good news. But it is still double what rates were in 2021. And that makes a huge difference in affordability.
Take a $1M home in Bee Cave. At 6.11% with 10% down, your monthly payment is about $5,500 before taxes and insurance. Add in property taxes at 2.5% and you are looking at $7,600 per month all in. That is $91,000 per year in housing costs alone. You need to make $275,000 per year to comfortably afford that home using the 33% rule. How many buyers in Bee Cave make $275K per year? Not as many as you think.
So what happens? Buyers drop their price range, negotiate harder, or walk away. And sellers sit.
The good news is that most forecasts show rates dipping toward 5.8% to 6.0% by the end of 2026. If that happens, affordability improves and demand picks up. But if rates stay above 6%, we are going to see more of the same: buyers being picky, sellers cutting prices, and inventory slowly climbing.
Is It a Buyer’s Market or a Seller’s Market?
Right now, Bee Cave is a neutral market leaning slightly toward buyers. Here is why.
Months of inventory is the best indicator of market balance. Under 3 months favors sellers. Over 6 months favors buyers. Bee Cave is sitting at about 5.6 months right now, which puts us right in the middle. But the trend is what matters, and the trend is moving toward buyers.
Six months ago, Bee Cave was a seller’s market. Homes were getting multiple offers, selling above list, and closing in 20 days. Today, homes are sitting for 30 days, selling for 5% below list, and buyers are asking for concessions. That is a big shift.
If you are a buyer, this is the best market we have seen in three years. You have options, you can negotiate, and sellers are motivated. If you are a seller, you need to be realistic. The days of overpricing your home and getting a bidding war are over. Price it right, make it show well, and be ready to negotiate.
Ed’s Prediction: Where Is Bee Cave Headed in the Next 12 Months
I think Bee Cave is going to stay flat to slightly down through mid 2026, and then stabilize in the second half of the year. Here is why.
First, new construction is not slowing down. Provence is adding 1,600 homes over the next few years, and builders are still active. That supply is going to keep pressure on resale values, especially in the middle market.
Second, interest rates are the wild card. If rates drop below 6% by the end of the year, demand picks up and we see a bounce. If rates stay above 6%, we grind sideways.
Third, California migration is still strong. As long as people keep leaving LA and the Bay Area for Austin, Bee Cave is going to have a buyer base. These buyers have cash, they value schools and lifestyle, and they are not going away.
So where does that leave us? I think you will see modest softening of 1% to 3% in median prices through mid 2026, followed by stabilization. The luxury market stays strong. The middle market stays soft. And the entry level stays tight.
Which one do you want? If you are buying in the luxury segment, you are fine. Take your time, be picky, and negotiate. If you are buying in the middle market, you have leverage right now. Use it. And if you are selling, price it right from the start. Do not chase the market down.
Specific Advice for Buyers Right Now
If you are buying in Bee Cave in early 2026, here is what I would do:
1. Take your time. This is not a market where you need to rush. Inventory is up, homes are sitting longer, and sellers are motivated. Do your homework, compare options, and do not overpay.
2. Negotiate hard. Homes are selling for 5% below list price on average. That is not an accident. Sellers are pricing too high and buyers are pushing back. Make a strong offer, but do not be afraid to ask for concessions on price, closing costs, or repairs.
3. Compare new construction to resale. If you are looking in the $700K to $1.2M range, tour Provence and compare it to resale homes in Falconhead or Sweetwater. The builder might offer better terms, a rate buydown, or closing cost help that makes the numbers work better.
4. Focus on neighborhoods that hold value. Spanish Oaks, Sweetwater, and The Homestead have the best long term track record in Bee Cave. If you are buying for appreciation, stick with proven neighborhoods.
5. Understand the school district. Lake Travis ISD is one of the best in Texas, but not all Bee Cave homes feed into the same schools. Make sure you know which elementary, middle, and high school your home is zoned for before you buy.
Have questions? Contact Ed Neuhaus for expert guidance on buying in Bee Cave.
Specific Advice for Sellers Right Now
If you are selling in Bee Cave in early 2026, here is what you need to know:
1. Price it right from the start. This is the most important thing you can do. Overpricing your home in this market is a death sentence. Look at recent comps, adjust for condition and location, and price 3% to 5% below what you think it is worth. You will get more activity, better offers, and a faster sale.
2. Make it show well. Buyers have options right now, and they are comparing your home to new construction. Fresh paint, updated fixtures, clean landscaping, and professional photos are non negotiable. If your home does not show well online, you will not get showings.
3. Be ready to negotiate. Buyers are asking for concessions, and if you want to sell, you need to be flexible. Whether it is closing costs, repairs, or a price reduction, expect to negotiate and build that into your pricing strategy.
4. Time it right. Spring is still the best time to sell in Bee Cave. If you can wait until March or April, you will have more buyers and better offers. But if you need to sell now, just know you are competing with higher inventory and fewer buyers.
5. Work with an agent who knows the market. This is not a market where you list your home and wait for offers. You need an agent who understands pricing strategy, knows the competition, and can position your home correctly. I have been working the Bee Cave market since 2009, and I know what works.
Ready to make a move? Ed Neuhaus has helped buyers and sellers navigate the Bee Cave market for over 15 years. Lets talk about your goals and build a strategy that works.
The Bottom Line
The Bee Cave real estate market is in transition. Median prices are up, but that is because of the mix of homes selling, not broad based appreciation. Price per square foot is down 7%, inventory is up 24%, and sellers are cutting prices. That tells you where the leverage is.
If you are buying, this is the best opportunity you have had in three years. If you are selling, you need to be realistic about pricing and condition. And if you are waiting for the market to bounce back to 2022 levels, you are going to be waiting a long time.
The good news is that Bee Cave is still one of the best places to live in Central Texas. Great schools, Hill Country lifestyle, proximity to Austin, and a strong buyer base from California and tech workers. The fundamentals are solid. The market is just recalibrating after a few years of unsustainable growth.
So now that we have that, lets not overthink it. Price it right, make it show well, and be ready to negotiate. That is how you win in this market.
