Ed Neuhaus 
I get this question at least once a day right now. “Ed, should I buy? Or should I wait?”
And my answer is probably not what you expect from a Realtor. I’m not going to tell you it’s always a good time to buy. That’s lazy advice. But I am going to walk you through the actual data, show you what buyers are getting right now that they haven’t been able to get in years, and let you make your own decision.
So is it a good time to buy a home in West Austin in 2026? Here’s what the numbers say.
The Buyer Leverage Right Now
Austin has a 114% gap between sellers and buyers. That’s the widest gap in the entire country. Let me say that again: there are more sellers than buyers in Austin right now than in any other major metro in America.
What that looks like in practice:
| Metric | What It Means for Buyers |
|---|---|
| 53.4% of listings with price cuts | More than half of sellers have already come down |
| 88 days on market | Sellers are waiting, which means they’re more willing to negotiate |
| 90.9% close-to-list ratio | Buyers are paying roughly 9% below asking price on average |
| 4.6 months of inventory | Approaching buyer’s market territory metro-wide |
| 10,372+ active listings | More choices than at any point since 2011 |
In the 2021 frenzy, buyers were waiving inspections, paying $50K-$100K over asking, and losing bidding wars on weekends. That world is gone. Right now you can take your time, negotiate hard, and ask for concessions that would’ve been laughed at three years ago.
What Buyers Are Actually Getting
Here’s what I’m seeing in real transactions across West Austin right now:
Closing cost credits. Sellers paying $10K-$30K+ toward the buyer’s closing costs. This is standard now in most price tiers.
Rate buydowns. Sellers funding a 2-1 buydown that drops your interest rate by 2 points in year one, 1 point in year two, then normalizes. On a $700K home, that can save $12K-$15K in the first two years.
Repair concessions. Inspection finds a $15K issue? You can negotiate for it. In 2021, sellers told buyers to pound sand on repair requests. Not anymore.
Flexible timelines. Need 60 days to close instead of 30? Need a leaseback while your old home sells? Sellers are accommodating.
No bidding wars. In most price tiers and most neighborhoods, you’re the only offer. That changes everything about the negotiation dynamic.
New Construction: An Even Better Deal?
If you’re open to new construction, the math gets even more interesting. Here’s the data that most people don’t know:
New build buyers averaged 5.27% mortgage rates in Q3 2025. Existing home buyers averaged 6.26%. That’s a full percentage point lower, because builders are buying down rates as an incentive. On a $600K home, that difference is roughly $400/month.
Builders are also offering closing cost credits, free upgrades (granite to quartz, covered patios, upgraded appliances), and flex dollars up to 10% of the base price. The new construction Activity Index is at 27.80% compared to 16.38% for resale. New builds are outperforming the existing home market because builders are making the deal work for buyers.
For the full breakdown of new communities and builder incentives in West Austin, see my new construction guide.
First-Time Buyer Programs
One thing that doesn’t get enough attention: the City of Austin offers up to $40,000 in down payment assistance through their homebuyer programs. It’s 0% interest and forgivable. If you qualify, that’s real money toward your down payment that you don’t have to pay back.
Combined with the seller concessions and builder incentives available right now, the effective cost of getting into a home in 2026 is significantly lower than the sticker price suggests. For a deeper look at what you can actually afford, this article walks through the math on how rates affect your buying power. And for the real cost of ownership beyond the mortgage, see this cost of living breakdown.
The “Should I Wait for Rates to Drop?” Question
This is the big one. And I address it in detail in my 2026 market forecast, but here’s the short version.
Current mortgage rates are around 5.99%. Most forecasters expect them between 5.0% and 5.9% by year-end 2026. So yes, rates will probably come down a bit. But here’s what happens when rates drop: more buyers enter the market, competition increases, and that leverage you have right now starts evaporating.
The buyers who are out there right now, with pre-approvals and realistic expectations, are getting the best deals because they’re competing against fewer people. When rates hit 5.5%, a wave of sidelined buyers comes back in. That’s not a theory, that’s how every rate cycle in the last 40 years has played out.
I wrote a whole piece on why timing the market rarely works. The short version: buy when you can afford it, when you find the right home, and when the terms work for your situation. The rate environment right now is favorable enough to make good deals.
Where the Best Deals Are in West Austin
Not all of West Austin is equal in terms of buyer opportunity right now. Here’s my price tier breakdown:
Best buyer leverage: Dripping Springs ($638-750K) and Lakeway ($690-779K). These markets have the most inventory, the highest price-cut rates, and sellers who are more motivated to negotiate. New construction incentives are strongest here.
Good buyer leverage: Bee Cave ($924K) and Barton Creek ($2.2-3.1M). Bee Cave is moving faster but still negotiable. Barton Creek at 189 DOM gives you serious leverage if you want the country club lifestyle.
Moderate buyer leverage: Westlake Hills and Rollingwood ($2.3-3.6M). You have more options than 2021, but this market is insulated. Sellers here don’t need to sell and won’t discount deeply. The opportunity is in having more inventory to choose from, not in getting a below-market deal.
For the full neighborhood data, see my price comparison by community. If you’re also considering selling, my seller’s guide covers the other side of the equation.
What About the 2026 Law Changes?
If you haven’t been following the regulatory side, there are some important new Texas real estate laws that affect buyer representation agreements and transaction processes. Worth reading before you start house hunting.
So, Should You Buy?
Look, I’m not going to tell you what to do. That’s your call. But I will tell you what the data says.
The data says you have more leverage as a buyer right now than at any point since 2019. The data says sellers are negotiating on price, closing costs, rates, and timelines. The data says new construction is offering incentives that make the effective cost significantly lower than the list price. And the data says this window probably doesn’t last forever.
If you can afford it, if you’ve found the right community, and if the terms work for your situation, the numbers favor buying in 2026. Not because prices are going to skyrocket (they’re not), but because the combination of inventory, incentives, and negotiating leverage creates a window that closes when rates drop and competition returns.
If you’re relocating to the area, my relocation guide covers everything from neighborhoods to schools to the income tax math. And for the full market picture, my 2026 forecast has all the data.
Ready to Start Looking?
Contact Ed Neuhaus at Neuhaus Realty Group for a no-pressure conversation about what you can get in this market. I’ll give you the real numbers, not a sales pitch.
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