The Real Estate Retirement Cliff: Why 40% of Agents Will Exit in 10 Years

Last week I read through the Deloitte workforce study on the real estate industry. I’ve seen a lot of industry research over the years. Most of it is pretty forgettable. This one I kept thinking about.

Here’s the line that got me: in 10 years, nearly 40% of the total US real estate industry will reach the age of retirement. That’s more than one million people. Agents, brokers, leaders, staff, across the board. Forty percent.

And it’s not a surprise to anyone who’s paying attention. The 2025 NAR member profile tells the same story from a different angle. The median age of a working Realtor is now 57. Twenty-nine percent of active NAR members are 65 or older. Forty-four percent are over 60. Meanwhile, only 11% of agents are under 40, down from 17% just the year before.

The industry is aging. Faster than almost anything else out there.

The Numbers Are Starker Than Most People Realize

Thirteen percent of the real estate workforce is currently over 65. Across all US industries, that number is 7%. So real estate has nearly double the proportion of workers over 65 compared to the national average. That’s not a minor demographic quirk. That’s a structural shift.

The Deloitte report also looked at leadership specifically. Twenty-five percent of real estate employees who hold senior leadership or C-suite positions are already past 65. And 59% of current leaders will reach retirement age within the next decade.

So the industry isn’t just aging at the front lines. It’s aging at the top.

Compare that to the rest of the economy: only 23% of employees across all US industries will hit retirement age in the next 10 years. Real estate’s number is 40%. That’s not a small difference. That’s almost twice the rate.

What This Looks Like in Austin

I’ve been licensed in Texas since 2007. Nineteen years. And the agents I see consistently closing deals, the ones with the deep client relationships and the local knowledge that actually matters, and most of them have been doing this for 15 or 20 years. That’s not a coincidence. Experience compounds in this business in ways that are hard to replicate quickly.

Austin’s market has shifted significantly since 2022. We’re in a buyer’s market right now. Homes are sitting longer. Buyers have negotiating leverage they haven’t had in years. That environment actually rewards experienced agents more, not less. Clients navigating a complex transaction with more options and more decisions need someone who has been through multiple market cycles. Someone who has seen what happens when interest rates change, when inventory spikes, when the frenzied pace slows.

The newer agents (and there are a lot of them, NAR membership surged and then contracted sharply over the past three years) many of them only know the pandemic market. They’ve never worked a buyer’s market before. That experience gap is real.

So as the retirement cliff approaches, the agents who have been doing this for 15 or 20 years aren’t losing value. Their value is going up. The relationships they’ve built, the clients who trust them, the local knowledge they carry. That doesn’t transfer easily and it doesn’t get rebuilt quickly.

Why Most Agents Haven’t Planned for This

Real estate has a weird relationship with retirement. Most professions have a clear endpoint: you work, you build a 401k, you hit an age, you stop. Real estate doesn’t work like that. There’s no mandatory retirement, no pension vesting date, no moment where someone taps you on the shoulder and says okay, time to wrap up.

So people just keep going. Until they can’t. Until the health issue or the family situation or the plain exhaustion makes the decision for them. That’s the worst way to exit a career you spent 20 years building.

The Deloitte report frames this as a talent pipeline problem for the industry. And that’s true. Organizations need to think about who’s next. But for individual agents, the real issue is more personal. What happens to the clients? What happens to the relationships? What happens to the income? And is there a way to wind down that doesn’t feel like just stopping?

The answer is yes. But it requires planning that most people never start.

The Agents Who Plan Ahead Get the Best Outcomes

Here’s what I’ve noticed: the agents who think about their exit years before they actually need one end up with far better options than the agents who wait until they’re already checked out.

If you’re 10 years away from wanting to transition, you have time to organize your database, build real systems, document your processes, and identify who might be the right person to carry your clients forward. (Here is a full breakdown of the four paths available to you.) You have leverage. You can be selective. You can structure an arrangement that works on your terms.

If you wait until you’re already burned out and your production has dropped, the leverage flips. You have less to offer, less energy to manage a transition, and less time to do it right.

The retirement cliff data says a million real estate professionals are in that first category right now, close enough to see retirement on the horizon, still active enough to plan well. That’s actually a window of opportunity, not a crisis. The ones who treat it that way will end up with something to show for their 20 years. The ones who don’t will just fade out.

Forward-thinking brokerages are starting to recognize this. Some are creating structured programs specifically to help experienced agents manage the transition, so it isn’t just an awkward conversation between an agent and their broker, but an actual framework with a defined path, defined terms, and defined outcomes. The Neuhaus Realty Group Emeritus Program is one example. The point isn’t to push anyone out. The point is to give people a real option that honors what they built instead of just letting it evaporate.

Your Experience Is Worth More Than You Think

I want to push back on something I hear sometimes from agents who’ve been in the business a long time. The idea that the industry has passed them by. That the tech, the social media, the AI tools, all of it has supposedly made their decade-plus of experience less relevant.

That’s exactly backwards.

Tools change. Platforms change. What doesn’t change is the fact that buying or selling a home is one of the biggest financial decisions most people will ever make, and they want to make it with someone they trust. Trust is built over time, through transactions, through showing up when things go sideways, through being the person who actually picked up the phone.

A database of 300 past clients who know you and trust you is an asset. Most agents underestimate what that database is actually worth. A 20-year reputation in a community is an asset. The ability to call the title company, the lender, the appraiser and have them take your call seriously. That’s an asset. None of that evaporates because Instagram changed its algorithm.

The retirement cliff is real. But so is the value of what experienced agents have built. The question is whether they’ll capture that value intentionally, or just leave it on the table.

The Smart Agents Are Already Planning

At Neuhaus Realty Group, we built the Emeritus Program for the agents who want to get ahead of this. If you have spent 15 or 20 years building something real in this market, you deserve to exit on your terms, with your clients taken care of, your relationships honored, and an ongoing marketing fee that reflects what you built.

No license required after you join. No desk fees. No CE. Just a structured, respectful transition that treats your career as the asset it actually is.

If you’re thinking about your own timeline, or if the retirement cliff data made you want to actually start planning instead of just thinking about it, reach out to me directly. I’m happy to have that conversation over coffee.

The cliff is real. So is the runway, if you start now.