Can We Predict What Your Home Will Sell For? We’re Testing It on 2,492 Listings

We locked in a home value prediction on 2,492 Austin-area homes before a single one of them went under contract. Not a range, not a “suggested list price,” not a Zestimate. A specific number for each property, recorded on Day 1 and frozen in our database. Now we wait.

Sounds like a bold bet right. It kind of is. But here’s why we did it, and why the results (good or bad) are going to matter to anyone buying or selling a home in the Austin metro.

Most Agents Guess. We Built a System.

Lets be honest about how pricing works in residential real estate. A seller calls an agent. The agent pulls some comps, looks at what’s active nearby, factors in “feel” and motivation, and lands on a price. Sometimes that number is backed by serious analysis. Sometimes it’s backed by what the seller wants to hear.

According to data from the Austin Board of Realtors, nearly 46% of active listings in the Austin metro have already had at least one price reduction. That’s not a typo. Almost half of the homes currently for sale were originally priced wrong.

And I get it. Pricing is hard. The Austin market in 2026 is sitting at about 5.3 months of inventory with a median sold price around $435,000 across the metro. Homes are averaging 90 days on market. That’s a very different animal than the 2021 market where you could price a home with your eyes closed and get 12 offers by Friday. Today, if your price is off by even 3 to 5 percent, you’re looking at a stale listing and a price reduction that signals desperation to every buyer watching.

So we asked ourselves a question. What if we could test our own pricing accuracy at scale? Not on one listing. Not on ten. On thousands.

The Experiment

Here’s what we’re doing at Neuhaus Realty Group. We built a comp engine (I’m not going to get into the specifics of how it works because frankly that’s our secret sauce). When a new listing hits the MLS, our system generates a predicted sale price on Day 1. Before any showings, before any offers, before the seller’s agent starts negotiating.

We started tracking in March 2026. As of today, we have predictions locked in on 2,492 residential listings across the Austin metro. Every single one is timestamped, recorded, and untouchable. No going back and adjusting after the fact (that would defeat the whole purpose right).

The system also records the original list price the seller chose. So when these homes eventually close, we’ll be able to answer two questions:

How close was our predicted price to the actual sale price?

And maybe more importantly: How close was the seller’s list price to the actual sale price?

That second question is the one that should make every listing agent a little uncomfortable.

Why We’re Doing This Publicly

I could have run this experiment quietly. Tracked the numbers internally, shown them to potential clients in a listing presentation, cherry-picked the best results. That’s actually what most people in this industry would do.

But Kahneman’s whole thing in “Noise” is that people are terrible at recognizing their own inconsistency. Two appraisers look at the same house and come up with numbers that are 20% apart. Two agents pull comps on the same property and disagree by $50,000. Nobody thinks they’re the inconsistent one.

So we’re publishing the results. All of them. Win, lose, or somewhere in between.

If our comp engine is within 2% of actual close prices on average, that’s a powerful data point for sellers deciding who to trust with their pricing strategy. And if we’re off by 8%? That’s still useful information. Honestly it would still beat the industry average for automated valuations, which is a low bar.

The point is accountability. I’ve been doing this for 19 years, and the one thing I’ve noticed is that nobody in real estate keeps score. Agents will tell you they “know the market” but nobody tracks whether their pricing recommendations actually pan out. We’re changing that.

What We’re Watching For

The first batch of closings should start rolling in around June 2026. Central Texas homes are averaging about 90 days on market right now, so properties that listed in March should start closing by late May or early June. We’re capturing accuracy snapshots at 30, 60, and 90 days.

Here’s what I’m personally most curious about:

Price reductions as a signal. If a home listed at $550,000 and our system predicted $505,000 on Day 1, and then the seller drops their price to $515,000 in week four, and the home eventually closes at $510,000… that tells a very specific story. The seller started too high. The market corrected them. And our system saw it coming before the first open house.

Geographic variation. I expect our predictions to be tighter in areas where we have the deepest data, like Bee Cave, Lakeway, and the broader Hill Country corridor. Markets like Round Rock or Georgetown where we have less transaction history might show wider error margins. That’s useful too because it tells us where to focus next.

The Zestimate comparison. Zillow’s Zestimate has a median error rate of about 7% on off-market homes and 2 to 3% on listed homes nationally. That’s the benchmark. If our system can beat those numbers in the Austin metro specifically, that’s meaningful. If we can’t, we need to go back to the drawing board. Either way, you’ll know.

Why This Matters If You’re Selling

Pricing your home correctly on Day 1 is the single highest-leverage decision in the entire selling process. Not staging. Not photography. Not timing the market. Pricing.

A home that’s priced right from the start generates the most interest in its first two weeks on market. That’s when buyer agents are flagging new listings for their clients. That’s when the algorithm gods at the major listing portals push your home to the most eyeballs. Miss that window, and you’re chasing the market down with price reductions that make buyers wonder what’s wrong with your house.

I’ve seen it a hundred times. Seller says “lets just test the market at $600K” when the comps say $560K. Four weeks later they’re at $575K. Six weeks later they’re at $555K. They eventually sell for $548K and wonder why the process took so long.

The irony is they would have gotten more money if they’d started at $560K and let multiple buyers compete.

If our experiment proves that our comp engine can accurately predict where these homes will land, it means sellers who work with us get a significant advantage. Not a gut feeling. Not a hope. A tested, data-backed starting point.

Why This Matters If You’re Buying

Here’s something buyers don’t think about enough. If you can identify an overpriced listing before you make an offer, you have all the leverage.

Right now in the Austin market, we’re seeing a textbook buyer’s market in most price ranges. Inventory is up. Days on market are up. Almost half of all listings are sitting with price reductions. That’s a lot of sellers who started too high and are now willing to negotiate.

But how do you know which listings are overpriced by $20,000 versus which ones are actually priced fairly? Most buyers are eyeballing Zillow and hoping for the best (and remember, the Zestimate is a starting point, not a verdict). A system that can tell you “this home is listed at $475K but our data suggests it will close around $445K” gives you a completely different negotiating position.

I’m not going to promise the system is perfect. We literally haven’t proven it yet, that’s the whole point. But I would argue that having a data-driven reference point is better than having nothing. And if the experiment validates the system, buyers working with our team will have access to those predictions on every listing they’re considering.

The Timeline

Here’s what to expect:

Now (April 2026): 2,492 listings tracked with Day 1 predictions locked in. New listings added daily.

Late May / June 2026: First batch of closings. We start calculating accuracy metrics.

July 2026: First public results post. Error percentages, geographic breakdown, our comp engine vs original list prices.

September 2026: Full 6-month analysis with enough data to draw real conclusions.

I’ll publish updates right here on this blog. No paywall, no email gate, no “schedule a call to see the results.” Just the numbers.

Nassim Taleb wrote about “skin in the game” which basically means don’t trust people who don’t bear the consequences of their own predictions. Most agents have zero skin in the game when it comes to pricing. They give you a number, you list it, and if it doesn’t work… well, you’re the one paying the mortgage while the house sits. This experiment is our way of putting ourselves on the line. If the system works, great. If it doesn’t, that’s on us. And you’ll see the receipts either way.

Want to Know Where Your Home Would Land?

The experiment is still running. But the comp engine is live and I use it on every listing consultation. If you’re thinking about selling in 2026 (or just curious where you stand), lets talk. I’ll run the numbers, show you what the system says, and you can decide whether you trust it more than a Zestimate. Just math, no pitch.

And if you’re buying in this market, having someone in your corner who actually tracks whether their pricing calls are right (not just someone who claims they “know the market”) might be worth a conversation. Reach out anytime.

Be safe, be good, and be nice to people.